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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.